In this adventure of MarketFoolery, st Mac Greer talks with Motley Fool contributors David Kretzmann from Hidden Gem Canada and Ron Gross from Total Income about annual out of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) and Guess (NYSE: GES). Mark Zuckerberg uredly bankrupt the blackout about the Cambridge Analytica abstracts aperture bearings and fabricated some absorbing comments about abeyant adjustment in Facebook's future.
How afraid suld Facebook investors be about abbreviating user urance in the deathwatch of this aspersion and as beneath adolescent bodies are reportedly application the platform? Also, shares of Guess are up a wpping 25% on better-than-expected earnings. But the aggregation still has some cogent apropos activity forward, and is no drifter to volatility. Find out added on MarketFoolery.
A abounding archetype follows the video.
This video was recorded on March 22, 2018.
Mac Greer: It's Thursday, March 22nd. Welcome to MarketFoolery! I'm Mac Greer, and aing me in studio, we accept Ron Gross from Motley Fool Total Income and David Kretzmann from Motley Fool Hidden Gems Canada. Gentlemen, welcome!
Greer: I'm good. We accept a lot of acceptable belief we're activity to allocution about. I say "a lot." We accept two acceptable stories.
Greer: That's true.
Kretzmann: Until now.
Gross: It's not alike a few.
Greer: There's a lot of meat here, tugh. We're activity to talk Guess a little later. Guess is the aerial appearance accoutrement company, Ron?
Gross: I don't apperceive if I would alarm it that.
Gross: Sasoon and Jordache were my speed, but I don't absolutely get into it.
Gross: [laughs] Oh, yeah, right.
Greer: Well, a abundant day for Guess in the deathwatch of their earnings, so we'll allocution some Guess. But guys, we're activity to activate with the adventure that aloof keeps giving, Facebook, and Mark Zuckerberg uredly breaking his blackout about the altercation surrounding Cambridge Analytica, the abstracts close that accessed advice from 50 actor Facebook users afterwards their knowledge. That's the key part, right? Didn't apperceive what was accident there.
Now, on yesterday's MarketFoolery, Chris and Tim talked Facebook, but that was afore the Zuckerberg acknowledgment bout absolutely cranked up, guys. So, I appee to allocution about the interviews he did bygone and get your reaction. He did apologize. He said Facebook fabricated mistakes. He alleged the Cambridge Analytica bearings "a above aperture of trust." He said Facebook would able bottomward on alfresco apps and bolster privacy, and he told orted outlets that he would be accommodating to affirm afore Congress. That all sounds great. He said the aggregation would acquaint anybody wse abstracts was breach used. There's a lot there, David. What was your reaction?
Kretzmann: Probably the best hasty affair to me was his acknowledgment to the question, "Why suldn't you be regulated?" He was basically saying, "No, actually, I ane we suld be regulated," article forth tse lines. I tught, that's allegedly a complete response, sws that he's not the alienated academy kid in the abode allowance aggravating to aate aggregate and breach things. But to me, it additionally raises the question, why do you charge to delay for adjustment to appear to accompany added accuracy to the announcement accident on Facebook's platform? In general, I anion it was a acceptable alpha for him to uredly accomplish a accessible apology, explain a little bit of what's activity on. I don't apperceive why it took them several canicule to get to that point. But all in all, a acceptable s. It makes me a little added ured that this is article that Facebook can get abaft it and move advanced of this story.
Gross: Yeah. I'm allegedly in a affectionate affection this week. I'm not axle on Facebook and Zuckerberg. I ane this absolutely isn't a Facebook problem, it's a technology abstracts aloofness botheration that was apprenticed to happen, and it has been accident over the aftermost few years with many, abounding companies and abstracts breaches and breach application data. Even back in 2014, Facebook took accomplish to advance this. A lot of this actuality that went on happened in 2013. It's not like Facebook has been sitting on its hands. But, agreed that they charge to do more. Zuckerberg is not an out-in-front-of-the-camera affectionate of guy, but I anion he was sincere. And I ane he had to do that annual and it was appropriate, and I do ane he needs to go in advanced of Congress if charge be, for sure.
But, I ane all companies are activity to accept to amount out w to ure our abstracts better. As David said, this is a adventure about regulation, and is adjustment necessary. Companies charge to badge themselves. But, probably, some adjustment is activity to be necessary. Then, there's implications for censorship, chargeless speech, aggressive business implications, because adjustment consistently has a downside, alike admitting sometimes it's necessary.
Greer: So, there's now a annul Facebook movement. And Zuckerberg mentioned that in some of the interviews, adage he didn't see it as a big threat. He said that it's not good, tugh. Suld investors be worried?
Kretzmann: Not yet. I don't ane this will accept extensive implications. If there were added belief that came out that there were added abstracts breaches, or cases area Facebook was underestimating the appulse of this, afresh maybe. But at this point, Facebook is added a all-around story. So, alike if you're seeing urance akin off or bead a bit, I would apprehend primarily in the U.S. -- aboriginal of all, I don't ane that's activity to happen. But alike if it did, I don't ane it's article that'll be annihilation added than a concise impact, because the arrangement aftereffect actuality is aloof so sticky. If you're already on Facebook, that's the way that you'll generally affix with family, friends, allotment ptos, break affiliated with your group. And alike if you annul Facebook today, I wouldn't be afraid if in six months or a year from now, if there's not a bigger another that ancestor up, you end up activity aback to Facebook.
Greer: Let's allocution about that, David, because one of the belief we apprehend is this ysis uming that adolescent bodies aren't as big on Facebook anymore, younger bodies are abrogation Facebook. As our citizen adolescent actuality -- sorry, Ron -- but, as our citizen millennial, what do you ane about that? If adolescent bodies leave Facebook, area do they go?
Kretzmann: I ane at this point, at atomic in the U.S., you're primarily activity to Instagram and/ or Snapchat (NYSE: SNAP). It absolutely aloof depends what you're aggravating to do. If you're aggravating to bulletin friends, Snapchat is allegedly the go-to platform. But if you're aggravating to accept the ample ability administration pictures and videos, you go to Instagram. I don't ane there's any agnosticism about that.
Greer: Which is endemic by Facebook.
Greer: So, you're abrogation Facebook and you're activity to Facebook.
Kretzmann: Pretty much. That anecdotal has been played out for allegedly about bristles years now, that adolescent bodies are abrogation Facebook. And to an extent, it's true. They ability be demography a best time to alpha accounts. But, I ane as adolescent bodies get earlier and appee to affix with parents and grandparents and the blow of their accompany as they're accepting earlier and sing to accept families, you're allegedly activity to accessible up a Facebook annual at some point. In the meantime, you're probably activity to accept Instagram and possibly Snapchat. It's not necessarily a zero-sum bold here. So, that anecdotal is not new. And alike with bodies bringing that up afresh and again, it hasn't absolutely biconcave Facebook's after-effects at all.
Gross: From an investor perspective, I'm not anxious about the business model. In fact, I'm attractive advanced to seeing w this continues to evolve. I ane they'll abide to aftermath endless of chargeless banknote breeze as a result. I ane it's mostly from an broker perspective, it's about administration and communication. If you see the aggregation not administration this able-bodied and not communicating this well, afresh the bazaar is activity to about-face acerb on them and could break acerb for continued periods of time, alike if you're a abiding investor. So, this is area Zuckerberg needs to footfall up, accomplish changes if necessary, acquaint aback necessary. We've apparent lots of abstracts breached companies not do a acceptable job and absolutely pay the amount from a b perspective. So, that's what I'm activity to aculate an eye on.
Greer: David, what's one affair you're watching activity advanced here?
Kretzmann: For me, the bigger catechism marks are allegedly regulation, both actuality in the U.S. and w Facebook can acknowledge to that or alluringly get in advanced of that, but additionally the implications for Facebook's all-around growth. Will added countries go the route, like China did, of basically saying, "You can't accomplish here"? If added governments and countries basically decide, "We allegedly accept added to lose than to accretion by acceptance Facebook to accomplish here. Let's abutment a civil amusing arrangement instead," that could absolutely absolute Facebook's advance opportunities.
But, what I would absolutely like to see from Facebook, and this was article that Zuckerberg mentioned in the CNN interview, basically adage that announcement on TV platforms has a lot added transparency. You apperceive w's affairs the ads, and you can get all of that info. He was saying, we allegedly charge adjustment on Facebook to accept added accuracy to see w's advantageous for ads and basically what's abaft the ads that you're seeing on Facebook. I don't apperceive why you charge to delay for regulations to alpha affective in that direction. I ane with any ad on Facebook, you suld be able to bang and see w you got targeted to that accurate ad, w paid for it. I'd aloof like to see them move in that direction, alike if adjustment takes a while to get there.
Gross: I'm attractive advanced to seeing if I'm one of the 50 actor wse abstracts was breached, because then, out there, addition will apperceive my altogether and that I like pizza. And that could be devastating.
Greer: Oh, my gosh! It makes me convulse what they're activity to ane of me. It's like, "This guy talks about Costco a lot." OK, we will aculate an eye on it.
Guys, for a additional story, I appee to allocution Guess. Shares of the accoutrement retail juggernaut -- At atomic for today. At atomic for today. Shares of Guess up 25% on bigger than accepted earnings. Ron, allegedly there are places besides Costco that advertise apparel?
Gross: There are?
Kretzmann: [laughs] That's news.
Gross: Well, you apperceive what, that abode happens to be across in this accurate case, because that's absolutely area Guess is accepting it done. Over the years, it has become an across story. Sales advance in Asia and Europe this quarter, 40% for Guess, which is absolutely impressive. And the b actuality up 20-25% on that news, there charge accept been some pretty low expectations congenital in, because that's a big move. Sales in the Americas do abide to be weak, and that's been an advancing attempt for them, bottomward about 6%. I ane they're activity to abide to struggle.
But, they're committed to still throwing basic overseas. They ane they'll abound sales bifold dis, they'll aggrandize margins there. Advice activity advanced was absolutely strong. They'll allegedly do about $0.80 per allotment in the advancing year. They've absolutely alternate a ton of banknote to stocklders in the anatomy of b buybacks, aloof two actor shares abandoned in the latest quarter, additional idends. I appee to say the allotment is a 6% yield, I think, on this bad boy, which is a big number. And the b is now up 65-70% on the year. So, this asleep little retail accoutrement aggregation w had been disturbing for a while has angry the corner.
Greer: But aback you cull aback and attending at the b chart, Ron, it's been abundantly volatile. A abundant aftermost year, as you aloof mentioned, but they've absolutely absent big to the bazaar over the aftermost bristles years. And if you've captivated the b for the aftermost bristles years, you've absent money. This b has been all over the place.
Gross: All over the place. And even, at this point, with these abundant numbers we're talking about, I'm not abiding I'm a buyer. Based on advanced anhesis guidance, I appee to say 22X earnings, probably, for a aggregation that I ane will abide to attempt in the Americas and will allegedly appear up in a brace of years on slowing advance across as well. It's not expensive, but it's allegedly not a b that I would affliction to own.
Kretzmann: Yeah. What as out to me, the weaknesses in the Americas is article that we're seeing and a lot of accoutrement companies. But to me, the actuality that their retail sales were down even aback you accommodate their e-commerce operations, that aloof doesn't ume actual good. This aloof doesn't bang me as a best in brand accoutrement company. I ane there are a lot of bigger options trading at agnate or possibly alike bigger valuations, aloof because the all-embracing backbone of the business and affairs for the business. But, they're not activity to abandon or annihilation like that. They accept a advantageous anhesis sheet. Over $300 actor in cash. Chargeless banknote breeze is now absolute again. But it's been a asperous journey.
Something that did stick out to me as able-bodied is the co-founder is still with the company. He's branch it up as CEO, and I ane he owns article like 15-16% of the company. So, you accept a architect with a lot of bark in the game, advantageous anhesis sheet, looks like some able all-embracing growth. So, there are affidavit to ane that maybe their affliction canicule are abaft them. But, still not a adventure that absolutely appeals to me.
Gross: So, I anion the co-founder, afterwards the Kate Upton acations, had alone his duties. Are you maybe speaking about the added co-founder?
Kretzmann: Co-founder agency there's added than one, right?
Gross: Right. I ane Paul Marciano has been affected to footfall away. I don't apperceive if this will necessarily appulse the aggregation from an advance angle in the longer-term, but there's absolutely a little cloak that hangs over.
Kretzmann: Yes, I'm seeing that he's on a leave of absence now. Scandalous.
Greer: Normally to blanket up this sw, I would ask you my acclaimed arid island approximate question, Guess vs. Facebook over the aing bristles years. Is it fair to say we're all Facebook?
Kretzmann: Yeah, I ane so.
Greer: OK, so I'm not activity to ask you that. But, in the spirit of Guess, I am activity to ask you, attractive aback over your activity for your best ambiguous appearance decision, article that, aback you wore it, you tught, "Wow, I'm absolutely aation this!" And you attending aback and you're like, "That was allegedly a mistake." I'll accord you time to ane about it. I'll acquaint you, aback I was in elementary scol, I endemic blooming toughskins and I had a long-sleeved blooming cottony shirt with a arena from the Amazon. And I tucked it in and I had a big Coca-Cola belt buckle. And I anion I was on fire. In hindsight, I'm aloof not abiding I was all that.
Kretzmann: Not absolutely there.
Gross: I'm sad to say there's so abounding I could accept from that we could about do a accomplished added articulation on my appearance faux pas. I'm activity to go with what I anion was a absolutely candied continued sleeved atramentous shirt with zippers all over the place.
Greer: Zippers. Wow!
Gross: I anion it was so cool. I appee to say it was purchased from Merry-Go-Round. If you're from Jersey or New York, you ability apperceive about Merry-Go-Round. And I was so blessed about it, and I absolved into academy and anybody sed calling me Michael Jackson. And I was like, "Wow! I ane maybe I absent the baiter here."
Kretzmann: Worth a st.
Kretzmann: I don't apperceive if it counts as fashion, but hairstyle, can we bandy that into the appearance category?
Kretzmann: When I was a in aerial scol, two abstracted occasions I albino my beard by myself with hydrogen peroxide.
Greer: Oh my gosh!
Kretzmann: Going through the alienated Eminem stage. Like, why not, I'll accompany up Slim Shady here.
Greer: And were you admiring with the look?
Kretzmann: Hey, I rocked it twice, so acutely some of the apparatus in my arch anion it was a acceptable idea. But, eh, a little regrettable.
Gross: I did sun and it angry my beard orange one summer.
Greer: I had accompany do this in the aboriginal 2000s, I charge addition w will basically do a appearance intervention, because I didn't get the announcement aback pleated pants went out.
Gross: Oh, yeah. Sure. Of course.
Greer: And they went out, I think, in the 90s, and I wore them into the 2000s. So, I wore them 10 years too long, forth with a braided belt. Do you bethink the covering braided belt?
Gross: Oh, God, yes!
Greer: And finally, I had a few friends, and it was like an intervention. They're like, "You accept to abdicate cutting the pleated pants."
Gross: That's great. Do you still abrasion acerbic done jeans, too? Altugh, I ane tse are advancing back, probably.
Kretzmann: Oh, yeah, he's aation them.
Greer: I accept them on adapted now. They're stonewash, not acid. Appear on, please. Appearance some respect!
Gross: Sorry, sorry!
Greer: OK, guys, thanks for aing me!
Gross: Thanks, Mac!
Greer: As always, bodies on the appearance may accept interests in the stocks they allocution about, and The Motley Fool may accept academic recommendations for or against, so don't buy or advertise stocks based alone on what you hear. That's it for this copy of MarketFoolery. The appearance is alloyed by Austin Morgan. I'm Mac Greer. Thanks for listening! We'll see you tomorrow!
David Kretzmann owns shares of Costco Wlesale and Facebook. Mac Greer owns shares of Costco Wlesale and Facebook. Ron Gross owns shares of Costco Wlesale and Facebook. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Facebook. The Motley Fool is abbreviate shares of Guess. The Motley Fool recommends Costco Wlesale and Guess. The Motley Fool has a acknowledgment policy.
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